Hi. 90/10 probability (shaded) in the solar forecasting


Could you explain the meaning of 90/10 probability (shaded) in the solar forecasting ? thanks

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@jtobar this article may help answer your question about 90/10 probability: https://articles.solcast.com.au/en/articles/2963469-solcast-probabilistic-forecasting-fields-what-are-they-how-do-we-create-them


At the end of the day it’s a forecast subject to some error like the weather forecast. In a nutshell, 1 day in 10 is poorer than the 10% line, and 1 day in 10 is better than the 90% line.

Normally you’ll find that as any day becomes nearer the grey area narrows as confidence in the forecast increases.

I use the forecast to predict the output of my solar panels to know when I need to buy power from the grid and when solar will be sufficient to charge my storage battery at home during the day. I work to an assumed 20% probability estimated as a function of the 10% line and the orange line which is 50% probability (I.e. equally likely to be batter or worse).